虽然黑匣子预测因子对于许多复杂任务是最先进的，但它们通常无法正确量化预测性的不确定性，并且可以为不熟悉的数据提供不恰当的预测。相反，我们可以通过让它们在不确定性高时输出预测集或弃权来了解更多可靠的模型。我们建议使用不确定性感知损耗最小化框架培训这些选择性预测集模型，从而统一决策理论和强大的最大可能性的思路。此外，由于黑盒方法不保证输出良好的预测集，我们展示了如何计算任何选择性预测集模型的真实覆盖点的点估计和置信区间，以及k设定模型的均匀混合从k折叠样品分裂获得。当应用于预测医院内部死亡率和ICU患者的逗留时间时，我们的模型优于样本内和样本龄群体的现有方法，我们的重新校准方法提供了准确的推理，用于预测集覆盖。

Cashews are grown by over 3 million smallholders in more than 40 countries worldwide as a principal source of income. As the third largest cashew producer in Africa, Benin has nearly 200,000 smallholder cashew growers contributing 15% of the country's national export earnings. However, a lack of information on where and how cashew trees grow across the country hinders decision-making that could support increased cashew production and poverty alleviation. By leveraging 2.4-m Planet Basemaps and 0.5-m aerial imagery, newly developed deep learning algorithms, and large-scale ground truth datasets, we successfully produced the first national map of cashew in Benin and characterized the expansion of cashew plantations between 2015 and 2021. In particular, we developed a SpatioTemporal Classification with Attention (STCA) model to map the distribution of cashew plantations, which can fully capture texture information from discriminative time steps during a growing season. We further developed a Clustering Augmented Self-supervised Temporal Classification (CASTC) model to distinguish high-density versus low-density cashew plantations by automatic feature extraction and optimized clustering. Results show that the STCA model has an overall accuracy of 80% and the CASTC model achieved an overall accuracy of 77.9%. We found that the cashew area in Benin has doubled from 2015 to 2021 with 60% of new plantation development coming from cropland or fallow land, while encroachment of cashew plantations into protected areas has increased by 70%. Only half of cashew plantations were high-density in 2021, suggesting high potential for intensification. Our study illustrates the power of combining high-resolution remote sensing imagery and state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms to better understand tree crops in the heterogeneous smallholder landscape.

While much attention has been paid to identifying explicit hate speech, implicit hateful expressions that are disguised in coded or indirect language are pervasive and remain a major challenge for existing hate speech detection systems. This paper presents the first attempt to apply Entity Linking (EL) techniques to both explicit and implicit hate speech detection, where we show that such real world knowledge about entity mentions in a text does help models better detect hate speech, and the benefit of adding it into the model is more pronounced when explicit entity triggers (e.g., rally, KKK) are present. We also discuss cases where real world knowledge does not add value to hate speech detection, which provides more insights into understanding and modeling the subtleties of hate speech.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in natural language understanding and generation, but the quality bar for medical and clinical applications is high. Today, attempts to assess models' clinical knowledge typically rely on automated evaluations on limited benchmarks. There is no standard to evaluate model predictions and reasoning across a breadth of tasks. To address this, we present MultiMedQA, a benchmark combining six existing open question answering datasets spanning professional medical exams, research, and consumer queries; and HealthSearchQA, a new free-response dataset of medical questions searched online. We propose a framework for human evaluation of model answers along multiple axes including factuality, precision, possible harm, and bias. In addition, we evaluate PaLM (a 540-billion parameter LLM) and its instruction-tuned variant, Flan-PaLM, on MultiMedQA. Using a combination of prompting strategies, Flan-PaLM achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on every MultiMedQA multiple-choice dataset (MedQA, MedMCQA, PubMedQA, MMLU clinical topics), including 67.6% accuracy on MedQA (US Medical License Exam questions), surpassing prior state-of-the-art by over 17%. However, human evaluation reveals key gaps in Flan-PaLM responses. To resolve this we introduce instruction prompt tuning, a parameter-efficient approach for aligning LLMs to new domains using a few exemplars. The resulting model, Med-PaLM, performs encouragingly, but remains inferior to clinicians. We show that comprehension, recall of knowledge, and medical reasoning improve with model scale and instruction prompt tuning, suggesting the potential utility of LLMs in medicine. Our human evaluations reveal important limitations of today's models, reinforcing the importance of both evaluation frameworks and method development in creating safe, helpful LLM models for clinical applications.

We address the problem of unsupervised domain adaptation when the source domain differs from the target domain because of a shift in the distribution of a latent subgroup. When this subgroup confounds all observed data, neither covariate shift nor label shift assumptions apply. We show that the optimal target predictor can be non-parametrically identified with the help of concept and proxy variables available only in the source domain, and unlabeled data from the target. The identification results are constructive, immediately suggesting an algorithm for estimating the optimal predictor in the target. For continuous observations, when this algorithm becomes impractical, we propose a latent variable model specific to the data generation process at hand. We show how the approach degrades as the size of the shift changes, and verify that it outperforms both covariate and label shift adjustment.

$ $With recent advances in CNNs, exceptional improvements have been made in semantic segmentation of high resolution images in terms of accuracy and latency. However, challenges still remain in detecting objects in crowded scenes, large scale variations, partial occlusion, and distortions, while still maintaining mobility and latency. We introduce a fast and efficient convolutional neural network, ASBU-Net, for semantic segmentation of high resolution images that addresses these problems and uses no novelty layers for ease of quantization and embedded hardware support. ASBU-Net is based on a new feature extraction module, atrous space bender layer (ASBL), which is efficient in terms of computation and memory. The ASB layers form a building block that is used to make ASBNet. Since this network does not use any special layers it can be easily implemented, quantized and deployed on FPGAs and other hardware with limited memory. We present experiments on resource and accuracy trade-offs and show strong performance compared to other popular models.

Runtime monitoring provides a more realistic and applicable alternative to verification in the setting of real neural networks used in industry. It is particularly useful for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs, for which the network was not trained and can yield erroneous results. We extend a runtime-monitoring approach previously proposed for classification networks to perception systems capable of identification and localization of multiple objects. Furthermore, we analyze its adequacy experimentally on different kinds of OOD settings, documenting the overall efficacy of our approach.

Most benchmarks for studying surgical interventions focus on a specific challenge instead of leveraging the intrinsic complementarity among different tasks. In this work, we present a new experimental framework towards holistic surgical scene understanding. First, we introduce the Phase, Step, Instrument, and Atomic Visual Action recognition (PSI-AVA) Dataset. PSI-AVA includes annotations for both long-term (Phase and Step recognition) and short-term reasoning (Instrument detection and novel Atomic Action recognition) in robot-assisted radical prostatectomy videos. Second, we present Transformers for Action, Phase, Instrument, and steps Recognition (TAPIR) as a strong baseline for surgical scene understanding. TAPIR leverages our dataset's multi-level annotations as it benefits from the learned representation on the instrument detection task to improve its classification capacity. Our experimental results in both PSI-AVA and other publicly available databases demonstrate the adequacy of our framework to spur future research on holistic surgical scene understanding.

Despite the impact of psychiatric disorders on clinical health, early-stage diagnosis remains a challenge. Machine learning studies have shown that classifiers tend to be overly narrow in the diagnosis prediction task. The overlap between conditions leads to high heterogeneity among participants that is not adequately captured by classification models. To address this issue, normative approaches have surged as an alternative method. By using a generative model to learn the distribution of healthy brain data patterns, we can identify the presence of pathologies as deviations or outliers from the distribution learned by the model. In particular, deep generative models showed great results as normative models to identify neurological lesions in the brain. However, unlike most neurological lesions, psychiatric disorders present subtle changes widespread in several brain regions, making these alterations challenging to identify. In this work, we evaluate the performance of transformer-based normative models to detect subtle brain changes expressed in adolescents and young adults. We trained our model on 3D MRI scans of neurotypical individuals (N=1,765). Then, we obtained the likelihood of neurotypical controls and psychiatric patients with early-stage schizophrenia from an independent dataset (N=93) from the Human Connectome Project. Using the predicted likelihood of the scans as a proxy for a normative score, we obtained an AUROC of 0.82 when assessing the difference between controls and individuals with early-stage schizophrenia. Our approach surpassed recent normative methods based on brain age and Gaussian Process, showing the promising use of deep generative models to help in individualised analyses.

The capture and animation of human hair are two of the major challenges in the creation of realistic avatars for the virtual reality. Both problems are highly challenging, because hair has complex geometry and appearance, as well as exhibits challenging motion. In this paper, we present a two-stage approach that models hair independently from the head to address these challenges in a data-driven manner. The first stage, state compression, learns a low-dimensional latent space of 3D hair states containing motion and appearance, via a novel autoencoder-as-a-tracker strategy. To better disentangle the hair and head in appearance learning, we employ multi-view hair segmentation masks in combination with a differentiable volumetric renderer. The second stage learns a novel hair dynamics model that performs temporal hair transfer based on the discovered latent codes. To enforce higher stability while driving our dynamics model, we employ the 3D point-cloud autoencoder from the compression stage for de-noising of the hair state. Our model outperforms the state of the art in novel view synthesis and is capable of creating novel hair animations without having to rely on hair observations as a driving signal.